Kerry: A Pointless and Failed Existence

The filibuster is pointless and doomed to fail. That's never stopped John Kerry.

One theory is that Kerry wants to put Clinton, Biden, Bayh, and other 2008 contenders in the Senate on the record about an issue important to their activist base. In doing so, he provides a great service to Republicans on their best-resonating political issue.

The filibuster is doomed to fail. It won't make the 40-vote threshold to continue debate and block a final vote. Fifty-five Republicans + Nelson (NE), Johnson (SD), Byrd (WV), maybe Conrad (ND) and Dorgan (ND) = 58-60 votes for Alito. A vote for Alito means a vote against the blocking tactic as well. Pryor, Landrieu, and Salazar have said they won't support a filibuster, even though they will vote against Alito. If the North Dakotans decide to oppose the nomination, they surely won't support a filibuster.

But Kos kids say that the Massachusetts duo might perform a miracle and convince the 'no filibuster, but no Alito' votes to switch course. After all, they say, Dianne Feinstein (CA) initially said she wouldn't filibuster but no says she will.

Even if 40 try to extend debate, Democrats still lose. Remember the Gang of Fourteen?

Republicans will not hesitate to break a filibuster on this nominee. Even if Lincoln Chaffee and Olympia Snowe (and up to three other GOPer's) defect, only 50 votes are needed for Cheney to break a tie and close the debate, leading to an up-or-down vote. Alito **will** be confirmed; it's just a matter of how far Democrats are willing to go.

Republicans have won elections on this issue before. Some pollsters say it's their single best resonator. The fact that Alito is universally supported by his colleagues and professional groups shows the public that Democrats are the partisans on this vote. By drawing as much attention as possible to an issue that is unquestionably hopeless, Kerry is ensuring a greater GOP victory.

On a side note, this confirmation stills leaves Roe with 5-4 SCOTUS support. I can't wait for the next opening.