Monday, November 06, 2006

So it begins... and a prediction...

Tomorrow we'll know how the next two years are going to shape up for America. Will the voters endorse the Democrats or the Republicans? For the past month, every news agency and media outlet has been touting the Republicans' upcoming demise. From covering the negative news in Iraq, to covering up for horribly unqualified Democratic candidates, to outright blind support of anyone who prefers donkeys over elephants, we have been told to expect a repeat of 1994.

Recently, the polls have come back into focus. Republican incumbents and challengers once off the radar have made a strong comeback. Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry have inserted their feet so far into their mouths that once can hardly ignore their foolhardy attempts to influence the Democratic "base."

Now that it is right down to the wire, some Democrats have begun the "righteous indignation" plan, where their victory is so certain and infallible that a Democratic defeat would be unthinkable, and therefore reason to allege election fraud.

I'm going to to out on a limb here and make my election prediction. Not by seats or governorships, but a general expectation. The Democrats will not regain control of congress. They will not secure a majority in either house. I will concede that it is likely that they will take up a few more seats than they have now, but they will not turn the tables. Also, I would be even less surprised if the Republicans actually gained seats, or at least didn't loose too many.

Why do I think this? A number of reasons. First and foremost, the majority of Americans are conservative. Unbenownst to the old media, the reasons no one watches the CBS Evening News or reads the New York Times anymore (and watches Fox News instead) is that most Americans realize the bias in most forms of media and have begun to reject it. A county by county map of US election results from 2004 confirms this claim. I understand that elections are by population and not by geography, but this map shows clearly that urban centers vote democratic, and rural populations usually vote Republican. The problem for the Democrats is that in urban vs. rural (a.k.a. liberal vs. conservative) the conservatives win out every time.

The other reason I think the Republicans will come out on top is the polling. Political polls all over the country have Republican candidates losing. This is something I have commented on before, in that I believe liberals are much more likely to answer polls than conservatives. This is what happened in the exit poll reports from 2004. The exit polls were off big time - and liberals alleged voter fraud. Conservatives like me realized that conservative voters find no need to talk to an exit poller about how they voted - they already voted! However, liberals acting though a belief in being the morally superior underdogs find great satisfaction in self-disclosing their stance on the issues. The same thing is happening this year. If my parents get a call from pollsters they hang up. If my professors receive one they probably lecture the political operative on their opinions concerning government policy.

Finally, the reason Republicans will win on the 7th is that Republicans actually stand for something. Democrats have foolishly decided once again to be the party of opposition - literally. On track with voting for John Kerry because you don't like President Bush (which is what failed in 2004) the Democrats are hoping that people will vote for them in opposition to President Bush and congressional Republicans, which again will not work. As the Democrats have been out of power, their reaction to this has been to spread to the margins. They believe that they have fallen out of sync with their "base," so rather than move to the middle to win they have moved to the fringes. It's clear that this strategy will get them nowhere. That, and the fact that they have as one voice expressed absolutely no plan of action on any issue they are doomed to repeat their 2004 debacle.

November 7th - Republicans will return and stay for at least two more years.

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